000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Oct 24 2018  

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.      

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Tropical Depression Willa centered near 24.4N 103.6W at 24/0900 
UTC moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 
kt. Please refer to local forecasts from the Meteorological 
Service of Mexico for specific information on heavy rainfall and 
flash flood potential from Willa. Refer to the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
for additional details. 
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave is analyzed N of 03N along 97W with isolated 
moderate to strong convection flaring from 06N to 12N within 
270 nm E and 120nm W of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia 
at 09N76W across the far southern Caribbean and NW Panama to the 
Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then turns SW through a 
tropical wave at 07N97W to 07N107W, then resumes at 16.5N105W 
and continues SW through an embedded surface low at 13N116W to 
09N124W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an 
ITCZ, which then continues W through another embedded surface 
low at 08N136W to beyond 09N140W. 

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed E of 
the surface low at 13N116W roughly within 75 nm either side of a 
line from 13.5N113W to 12N117W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted within 270 nm over the W quadrant of 
the surface low at 08N136W. Isolated moderate to strong 
convection is observed elsewhere within 90 nm either side of a 
line from 08N80W to 08N92W to 08N106W, and within 60 nm of 
18.5N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

W of the Baja california Peninsula...Moderate NW flow expected 
today as the pressure gradient relaxes. Southerly swell 
currently along the SW tip of the southern Baja Peninsula and 
long period NW swell currently across the waters N of 26N will 
both subside with 4 to 6 ft seas forecast across the waters W of 
Baja by this evening with little change then expected through 
the upcoming weekend. 

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas 8 to 11 
ft currently observed across the waters S of 25N will quickly 
diminish/subside from the N, with light N winds and 3 to 5 ft 
seas forecast by this afternoon. Light and variable winds then 
expected across the entire gulf waters through Thu, with seas of 
3 to 4 ft continuing across the far southern gulf waters. Light 
to moderate NW flow expected on Fri, and light NW flow forecast 
on Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec...Moderate northerly flow is expected 
through this morning. Extended guidance suggests the next strong 
northerly drainage event will begin on Sat evening, and continue 
through late Mon, with gale force conditions possible on Mon 
evening.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through 
Thu morning. Extended guidance suggests strong NE gap winds will 
begin late Mon night.   

Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere 
N of the monsoon trough through Fri morning, while moderate to 
locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, 
are forecast S of the monsoon trough.  
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A 1012 mb low near 13N116W will drift NW for about a day before 
turning SW and reaching near 11.5N122W late Thu, with the low 
expected to dissipate on Fri. 

A 1011 mb surface low has developed along the ITCZ near 
08N136.5W and is expected to move W of 140W today.   

A surface high will meander over the far NW waters through Thu 
then shift NE of the area. An area of locally strong NE trades 
and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the tropical waters from 
08N to 14N W of 135W for another day before diminishing. Large 
NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach along 32N135W 
to 28N140W today, and reach from 32N130W to 22N140W tonight, 
then subside as fresh NE trades with 7 to 9 ft seas, develop 
from 10N to 23N W of 131W. 

$$
Nelson