000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232210 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Willa is centered near 22.2N 106.4W at 2100 UTC moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 60 nm across the SE and 90 nm across the NW semicircles, surrounded by scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 180 nm NE and 120 nm SW of the center. Willa has moved across the northern islands of Las Tres Marias in the past few hours where a wind gust to 110 kt was reported at the Isla Maria Madre airport. Heavy rainfall has increased across the coastal zones from Jalisco to southern Sinaloa this afternoon and will increase in intensity and coverage along the Pacific coasts of mainland Mexico from the Guadalajara to north of the Mazatlan area through this evening as Willa tracks NE and moves inland. Large swells generated by Willa will continue to impact the mainland Mexican coast and the southern Gulf of California between 102W and 108W through tonight, and will produce very large and powerful surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please refer to local forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Willa. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente moved northward and inland this morning across Michoacan and has since dissipated into an elongated area of low pressure. The remnants has since moved northward across the area mountains and greatly disrupted the circulation of this small storm. Residual moisture is expected to accompany the broader circulation of Willa across central Mexico during the next 48 hours. Please refer to local forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Vicente and Willa. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 06N along 93W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection flaring S of 10N within 150 nm of the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N73W TO 09.5N85W TO 06.5N107W, where it breaks, then resumes SW of Willa near 15N106W TO low pres near 12.5N116W TO 10N123W, where it then transition to ITCZ, which then continues W-NW to beyond 09N140W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm N and 150 nm S of the trough between 78W and 104W, and within 120 nm S of the trough between 106W and 114W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 10.5N between 135W and 141W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical Cyclones Vicente and Willa. W of the Baja california Peninsula...Weak high pressure remains centered across the far NW waters and is producing moderate to locally fresh NW flow across the offshore waters, and expected to persist through early Wed when the pressure gradient will begin to relax. Large southerly swell from Hurricane Willa will continue to propagate northward through the waters W of Baja reaching beyond 30N Wed while NW swell also begins to propagate into the waters N of 27N, yielding seas of 6 to 8 ft. Seas should subside to less than 8 ft by late Wed afternoon. Gulf of California...Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds, and seas 8 to 12 ft are expected S of 25.5N through late tonight as Willa passes S of the gulf entrance. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are possible across the gulf waters S of 25N through the rest of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Fresh northerly flow is expected through Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through Wed morning. Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on Tropical Cyclone Willa. A 1008 mb low near 12.5N116W will drift NW then W over the next several days with fresh NE flow developing across the NW semicircle, as it moves south of the ridge to the NW. Seas of 6 to 9 ft seas are expected within 180 nm of the low. A 1022 mb surface high will meander near 27N138W through Wed then begin to drift NE ahead of a strong frontal system that will approach but not reach the far NW waters. An area of locally strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the tropical waters from 10N to 17N W of 134W for the next few days. Large NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W tonight and reach from 32N130W to 20N140W on Wed night and from 32N120W to 10N135W on Thu night. $$ Stripling