000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232145 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 23 2018 CORRECTION TO ISSUANCE TIME Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Willa is centered near 21.4N 106.9W at 1500 UTC moving NNE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 45 nm across the NE and 90 nm across the SW semicircles, surrounded by scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 180 nm of the center. Heavy rainfall has begun to impact the coastal zones from Jalisco to Nayarit and will increase in intensity and coverage along the Pacific coasts of mainland Mexico from the Manzanillo area to north of the Mazatlan area through this evening as Willa tracks NE and moves inland. Large swells generated by Willa will continue to impact the mainland Mexican coast and the southern Gulf of California between 102W and 108W through tonight, and will produce very large and powerful surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please refer to local forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Willa. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente is centered inland near 18.4N 102.4W at 1500 UTC moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 90 nm of the center and are likely causing localized flooding along the Mexican coastal zones across western Guerrero and Michoacan. Vicente will continue to move on a northwestward track and weaken to remnant low tonight. Please refer to local forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico for specific information on heavy rainfall and flash flood potential from Vicente. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 06N along 92W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection flaring S of 11N within 150 nm of the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W TO 09.5N85W TO 06.5N95W TO 12N101W, where it breaks, then resumes SW of Will near 16N105W TO LOW PRES 12.5N116W TO 10N120W, where it then transition to ITCZ, which then continues W-NW to beyond 10N140W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side of trough between 78W and 107W. Scattered moderate to strong from 06N to 11N between 134W and 142W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical Cyclones Vicente and Willa. W of the Baja california Peninsula...Weak high pressure remains centered across the far NW waters and is producing moderate to locally fresh NW flow across the offshore waters, and expected to persist through early Wed when the pressure gradient will begin to relax. Large southerly swell from Hurricane Willa will continue to propagate Northward through the waters W of Baja reaching beyond 30N tonight while NW swell also begins to propagate into the waters N of 27N, yielding seas of 7 to 8 ft. Seas should subside to less than 8 ft by Wed afternoon. Gulf of California: Light, Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds, and seas 8 to 12 ft are expected S of 25.5N through late tonight as Willa passes S of the gulf entrance. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are possible across the gulf waters s of 25N through the rest of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Fresh to locally strong northerly flow is expected through this morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through Wed morning. Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on Tropical Cyclone Willa. A 1008 mb low near 12.5N116W will drift NW then W over the next several days with fresh southerly flow across the SE semicircle, and seas of 6 to 9 ft seas within 210 nm SE of the low. This low has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the 5 days. A 1020 mb surface high will meander near 27N138W through tonight then begin to drift NW ahead of a strong frontal system approaching the far NW waters. An area of locally strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the tropical waters from 10N to 17N W of 134W for the next several days. Large NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W tonight and reach from 32N130W to 20N140W on Wed night and from 32N120W to 10N135W on Thu night. Stripling