000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Willa centered near 16.2N 106.5W at 21/0900 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Currently numerous strong convection is observed within 45 nm E and 75 nm W of the center, surrounded by scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 330 nm of the center. Some of these rain bands will bring very heavy rainfall to the Pacific coast of Mexico. Willa will track N across the central Mexican offshore waters through early Wed. Swells generated by Willa will reach portions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico by Mon and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Vicente centered near 14.5N 96.0W at 21/0900 UTC moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed in a band within 120 nm over the SW semicircle of the center. Vicente will continue on a general westward track through the southern Mexican offshore waters through Tue. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 08N along 84W with isolated moderate to strong convection flaring within 120 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 09N86W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 10N76W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W, then turns NW to near 12N92W where it loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Cyclone Vicente. The monsoon trough resumes SW of Hurricane Willa at 14N111W, and continues SW through an embedded surface low at 11N118W to 09N127W, then the monsoon trough turns W-NW to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm SE quadrant of the surface low at 11N118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 45 nm of 10N118.5W, and from 08N to 12N between 131W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical Cyclones Vicente and Willa. A surface ridge from 22N116W to 21N106W will retract W this afternoon. Gentle to locally moderate NW to N flow is expected N of 20N W of 110W through Mon night when the pressure gradient is forecast to tighten, supporting moderate northerly flow W of the Baja California Peninsula by the middle of the week. Additionally, large southerly swell from Tropical Cyclone Willa will propagate N through the waters W of Baja on Mon night through most of Wed before beginning to subside. Gulf of California: Light, mostly northerly flow is expected through late Mon when large southerly swell from Tropical Cyclone Willa will propagate into the southern gulf waters and then persist through Wed. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected across the gulf waters S of 24.5N on Tue night into Wed as Willa passes S of the gulf entrance. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Fresh northerly winds, with 6 to 8 ft seas are forecast S of 15N today as Tropical Cyclone Vicente passes to the S. Fresh to locally strong northerly flow is expected on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through Mon morning. Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 8 ft seas forecast through late Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on Tropical Cyclone Willa. A weak 1010 mb low will meander near 11N119W for the next several days with moderate southerly flow and 6 to 8 ft seas forecast within 150 nm SE of the low. A surface high will meander near 29N136W with moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow forecast across the tropical waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and W of 122W through the middle of the week. An area of 7 to 9 ft seas is observed across the tropical waters from 11N to 20N W of 135W. These conditions will shift W of the area on Mon night. $$ Nelson