000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Willa is centered near 15.7N 106.1W at 21/0300 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Currently numerous strong convection is observed within 30 nm of the center, surrounded by scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 270 nm of the center. Willa will track N across the central Mexican offshore waters through Tue night. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Vicente is centered near 14.8N 95.0W at 21/0300 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 30 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles of the center. Vicente will continue on a general westward track through the southern Mexican offshore waters through Tue. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 10N76W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W, then turns NW to 12N92W where it loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Cyclone Vicente. The monsoon trough resumes SW of Willa at 13N110W and continues SW through a surface low at 11N118W to 09N126W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W- NW to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 210 nm S semicircle of the low at 11N118W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed to the N of 04N E of 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm either side of a line from 10N106W to 10N110W, and from 08N to 12N between 134W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical Cyclones Vicente and Willa. A surface ridge from 22N116W to 21N106W will retract W on Sun afternoon. Gentle to locally moderate NW to N flow is expected N of 20N W of 110W through Mon night. The pressure gradient is then forecast to tighten, supporting moderate northerly flow W of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle of next week as large southerly swell from Tropical Cyclone Willa propagates N through the waters W of Baja. Gulf of California: Light, mostly northerly flow is expected through late Mon when large southerly swell from Tropical Cyclone Willa will propagate into the southern gulf waters and persist through Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Fresh northerly winds, with 6 to 8 ft seas are forecast S of 15N through late Sun as Tropical Cyclone Vicente passes to the W further offshore. Fresh to locally strong northerly flow expected on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast through Mon morning. Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 8 ft seas forecast through late Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on Tropical Cyclone Willa. A weak 1010 mb low will meander near 11N119W for the next several days with moderate southerly flow and 6 to 8 ft seas forecast within 150 nm SE of the low. A surface high will meander near 29N136W with moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow forecast across the tropical waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and W of 122W through the middle of the week. An area of 7 to 9 ft seas is observed across the tropical waters from 11N to 20N W of 135W. These conditions will shift W of the area on Mon night. $$ Nelson