000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Former easternmost surface low developed into Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E. As of 1500 UTC, the center of Twenty- Three-E was located near 13.3N 91.9W. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Twenty-Three-E is moving WNW at 2 kt. A west-northwestward or westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico through early next week. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the depression center. 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches are expected today across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6 inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life- threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO header MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for additional details. A low pressure is located about 180 nm south of Guerrero, Mexico near 15N102W with an estimated surface pressure of 1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the low center, however a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SW quadrant of the low from 11N to 15N between 102W and 105W. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves westward or west-northwestward offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. This surface low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 2 days. Refer to the latest East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO header MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to T.D. 23-E near 13.3N91.9W to low pressure at 15N102W to low pressure near 11N118W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with T.D. and the low near 102.5W, scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 21N between 104W and 109W, and from 06N to 10N between 134W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Paragraph above for a discussion on several synoptic features affecting the central and southern Mexico offshore waters today and through early next week. Strong northerly gap drainage winds are expected to continue through and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning feeding into the westernmost surface low. A surface ridge will meander across the offshore waters from 23N117W to 17N109W for the next few days. Gentle northwest to north flow is expected north of 20N west of 110W through early Mon. The pressure gradient is then forecast to tighten supporting moderate northerly flow west of the Baja California Peninsula through the middle of next week. Gulf of California: High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northerly winds across the gulf waters north of 29N through this morning. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are forecast across the remainder gulf waters through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwesterly to westerly monsoonal flow will dominate the offshore waters through Sat night. Fresh southwest winds are expected to develop south of 05N east of 90W on Sat night with seas to 9 ft. These conditions will reach the coast of Panama early next week. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms associated with the features in the Special Features Paragraph above will continue to affect portions of Central America and adjacent Pacific coastal waters today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander from 12N131W to 23N117W through the upcoming weekend. A 1008 surface low is analyzed near 10N118W, and is expected to drift west for a day or so accompanied by fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft. An area of strong northeast trades is observed from 12N to 15N west of 132W, surrounded by seas to 10 ft in mixed swell across the discussion waters north of 11N west of 128W. These seas will gradually subside through the middle of next week. Long period southerly swell, in form of 8 ft seas, will enter the southern waters on Sat and propagate northeast to along 10N east of 120W through Sun. $$ Ramos