000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1458 UTC Mon Oct 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of newly named Tropical Storm Tara is located near 17.6N 104.4W at 15/1500 UTC or 80 nm S of Manzanillo Mexico drifting WNW or 295 degrees at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm NW and 60 nm SE semicircles. On the forecast track, the center of Tara is expected to remain near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Gulf of California: A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern Gulf of California through this evening. Strong to near gale force NW winds will rapidly develop N of 27N in response to robust high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United States. Frequent gusts to gale force are also expected N of 30N, with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. These marine conditions will persist through Tue, but mainly N of 29N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure centered over the SW Caribbean near 15N82W, then across Nicaragua to near 12N87W to 15N97W. Another segment of the monsoon trough stretches from 14N106W to 10N120W to 11N133W to 09N140W. A cluster of moderate to scattered strong convection is seen over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 10N between 85W-93W, from 11N-14N between 98W-111W, from 09N- 12N between 111W-117W, and within 120 nm N of trough between 127W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California Peninsula producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds, and seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Seas are forecast to increase a foot or so by the end of the forecast period as mixed swell generated by Tropical Storm Tara arrives. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft by Wed afternoon. This event will be associated with a ridge building behind a cold front across the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area during this time frame. By Tue night and Wed, marine guidance suggests an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This appears to be associated with a broad area of low pressure moving from the SW Caribbean into Central America during this time frame. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high pressure located N of area near 35N127W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters producing light to gentle winds N of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds S of 20N and N of the monsoon trough. The next cold front will approach the far NW corner of the discussion area by this evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas to 9 ft are forecasted ahead of the front. The front will reach a position from 30N139W to 28N140W on Tue morning, and from 30N138W to 26N140W on Wed morning while weakening. Long period NW swell will follow the front building seas of 8-10 ft. Satellite-derived wind and altimeter data confirmed the presence of moderate to fresh monsoonal flow from 05N to 13N between 100W and 110W, and 05N and 10N between 110W and 125W, with an associated area of seas of 7 to 9 ft in long period SW swell. $$ GR