000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 UTC Mon Oct 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of newly named Tropical Storm Tara is located near 17.5N 104.2W at 15/0900 UTC or 90 nm S of Manzanillo Mexico nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted in the NW quadrant within 120 nm. Tara is nearly stationary, and little overall motion is expected during the next day or so. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin after mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Tara is forecast to remain near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Gulf of California: A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern Gulf of California today from 15Z until 00Z Tue. Strong to near gale force NW winds will rapidly develop N of 27N in response to robust high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United States. Frequent gusts to gale force are also expected N of 30N, with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. These marine conditions will persist through Tue, but mainly N of 29N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16N77W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered over the SW Caribbean near 14N81W then across Central America and SE Mexico to near 17N96W to 17N102W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Tara at 14N107W to 12N112W to 12N130W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen within 45 nm either side of a line from 10N83W to 15N94W. Scattered moderate and isolated convection is taking place elsewhere within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N83W to 14N95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 14N between 98W and 120W, from 06N to 09N between 120W and 127W and from 08N to 12N between 130W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California Peninsula producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds, and seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Seas are forecast to increase a foot or so by the end of the forecast period as mixed swell generated by Tropical Storm Tara arrive. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft by Wed afternoon. This event will be associated with a ridge building behind a cold front across the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area during this time frame. By Tue night and Wed, marine guidance suggests an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This appears to be associated with a broad area of low pressure moving from the SW Caribbean into Central America during this time frame. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge surrounding 1019 mb high pres centered near 32N133W dominates the northern forecast waters producing light to gentle winds N of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds S of 20N and N of the monsoon trough. The next cold front will approach the far NW corner of the discussion area by this evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas to 9 ft are forecasted ahead of the front. The front will reach a position from 30N139W to 27N140W on Tue, then remain nearly stationary over the NW forecast waters on Wed while weakening. Long period NW swell will follow the front building seas of 8-10 ft NW of a line from 30N134W to 22N140W on Wed. Satellite-derived wind and altimeter data confirmed the presence of moderate to fresh monsoonal flow from 05N to 13N between 100W and 110W, and 05N and 10N between 110W and 125W, with an associated area of seas of 7 to 9 ft in long period SW swell. $$ CAM