000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 323 UTC Mon Oct 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E is located near 17.5N 104.3W at 15/0300 UTC or 90 nm S of Manzanillo Mexico moving WNW or 295 degrees at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted in the NW semicircle within 120 nm. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to slowly move away from Mexico over the next few days. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or early Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Gulf of California: A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern Gulf of California. On Mon, strong to near gale force NW winds will rapidly develop N of 27N in response to robust high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United States. Frequent gusts to gale force are also expected N of 30N, with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. These marine conditions will persist through Tue, but mainly N of 29N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16N77W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered over the SW Caribbean near 14N80W then across central America and SE Mexico to near 17N96W to 17N102W, then resumes SW of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E at 14N107W to 12N112W to 12N130W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen within 45 nm either side of a line from 11N83W to 15N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated convection is taking place elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 83W and 95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 20N between 98W and 107W, and from 09N to 13N between 108W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California Peninsula producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds, and seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Seas are forecast to slightly increase by the end of the forecast period, likely associated with mixed swell generating by the aforementioned tropical cyclone. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft by Wed afternoon. This event will be associated with a ridge building behind a cold front across the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area during this time frame. By Tue night and Wed, marine guidance suggests an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This appears to be associated with a broad area of low pressure moving from the SW Caribbean into Central America during this time frame. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge dominates the northern forecast waters producing light to gentle winds N of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds S of 20N and N of the monsoon trough. The next cold front will approach the far NW corner of the discussion area by late Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas to 9 ft are forecasted ahead of the front. The front will reach a position from 30N139W to 27N140W on Tue, then remain nearly stationary over the NW forecast waters on Wed while weakening. Long period NW swell will follow the front building seas of 8-10 ft NW of a line from 30N134W to 22N140W on Wed. Satellite-derived wind, and altimeter data confirmed the presence of moderate to fresh monsoonal flow from 05N to 13N between 100W and 110W, and 05N and 10N between 110W and 120W, with an associated area of seas of 7 to 9 ft in long period SW swell. $$ CAM