000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1409 UTC Sun Oct 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A new Tropical depression has formed just to the SW of Mexico. Heavy rains are expected across portions of SW Mexico. The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E is centered near 17.0N 102.8W at 14/1500 UTC or 150 nm SE of Manzanillo Mexico moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm NW and 60 nm SE semicircles of center. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to slowly move away from Mexico over the next few days. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or early Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Gulf of California: On Mon, strong to near gale force NW winds will rapidly develop N of 27N in response to robust high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United States. Winds could gust to gale force for the waters N of 30N when this event peaks on Mon. Seas to 9 or 10 ft are possible in the northern Gulf Monday, then seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by Tue evening as winds die down. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 MB low pressure over the SW Caribbean near 13N81W to Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E near 17.0N 102.8W to 10N120W to 12N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 10N between 86W and 95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 19N between 99W and 110W...and from 06N to 11N W of 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominating the offshore waters W of Baja California Peninsula is producing mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds, and seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range are expected beginning on Mon as high pressure builds W of Baja California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft by Wed afternoon. This event will be associated with a ridge building behind a cold front across the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area during this time frame. By Tue night and Wed, marine guidance suggests an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This appears to be associated with a broad area of low pressure moving from the SW Caribbean into Central America during this time frame. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge of high pressure to the N of the discussion area will generate light to moderate trades over the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. The next cold front will approach the far NW corner of the discussion area by late Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas to 9 ft are forecasted ahead of the front. The front will reach a position from 30N139W to 27.5N140W by Tue evening. The front will weaken Wed and allow winds to subside, but long period NW swell generated behind the front will cause seas to build to 8 ft or above N of 20N and W of 133W by Wed evening. Satellite-derived wind data confirmed the presence of moderate to fresh monsoonal flow between 05N and 10N between 100W and 135W, with an associated area of seas of 7 to 9 ft in long period SW swell. $$ GR