000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140825 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 UTC Sun Oct 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A small, compact low pressure system centered about 130 nm WSW of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near the center. Upper-level winds are expected to become gradually more favorable for development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward close to the coast of southwestern Mexico.Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima during the next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service. This system retains a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. See latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. Gulf of California: On Mon, strong to near gale force NW winds will rapidly develop N of 27N in response to robust high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United States. Winds could gust to gale force for the waters N of 30N when this event peaks on Mon. Seas to 11 ft are possible in the northern Gulf Monday, then seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by Tue evening as winds die down. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located near 14N81W to 17N93W to low pres 1006 mb near 17N102W to 10N122W to 12N132W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 60 nm of 17N103W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 270 nm either side of a line from 17N100W to 11N110W to 10N120W to 10N136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 120 nm either side of a line from 11N86W to 15N96W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominating the offshore waters W of Baja California Peninsula is producing mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds, and seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range are expected beginning on Mon as high pressure builds W of Baja California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft by Wed afternoon. This event will be associated with a ridge building behind a cold front across the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area during this time frame. By Tue night and Wed, marine guidance suggests an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This appears to be associated with a broad area of low pressure moving from the SW Caribbean into Central America during this time frame. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge of high pressure to the N of the discussion area will generate light to moderate trades over the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. The next cold front will approach the far NW corner of the discussion area by late Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas to 9 ft are forecasted ahead of the front. The front will reach a position from 30N139W to 27.5N140W by Tue evening. The front will weaken Wed and allow winds to subside, but long period NW swell generated behind the front will cause seas to build to 8 ft or above N of 20N and W of 133W by Wed evening. Satellite-derived wind data confirmed the presence of moderate to fresh monsoonal flow between 05N and 10N between 100W and 135W, with an associated area of seas of 7 to 9 ft in long period SW swell. $$ CAM