000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 UTC Sun Oct 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A small, compact low pressure system located about 125 nm WSW of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near the center. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for development of a tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance moves moves slowly W to WNW parallel to the SW coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima during the next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. See latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. Gulf of California: On Mon, strong to near gale force NW winds are expected N of 27N in response to robust high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United States. Winds could gust to gale force for the waters N of 30N when this event peaks on Mon. Seas to 11 ft are possible in the northern Gulf Monday, then seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by Tue evening as winds die down. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located near 14N82W to 17N97W to low pres 1006 mb near 16N102W to 11N121W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 60 nm either side of a line from 13N84W to 15N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm either side of a line from 16N100W to 08N120W to 11N135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominating the offshore waters W of Baja California Peninsula is producing mainly light to gentle winds. Seas of 6 to 7 ft are observed just W of Baja California Sur, and near the entrance of the Gulf of California. These seas, associated with long period SW swell, are expected to subside to 5-6 ft by tonight. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds, and seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range are expected beginning on Mon as high pressure builds W of Baja California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft by Wed afternoon. This event will be associated with a ridge building behind a cold front across the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area during this time frame. By Tue night into Wed, marine guidance suggests an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This could be associated with a broad area of low pressure moving from the SW Caribbean into Central America next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The cold front over the north-central waters has weakened into a trough. Gentle to moderate NW winds are in the wake of the front, forecast to gradually dissipate across the NE waters through Sun. Another cold front will approach the far NW corner of the discussion area by late Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas to 9 ft are forecasted ahead of the front. The front will reach a position from 30N139W to 28N140W by early Tue morning. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of moderate to fresh monsoonal flow S of 10N W of 100W, with an area of seas to 8 ft in long period SW swell, affecting the waters from 05N-10N between 100W-120W. These seas will merge with cross equatorial SW swell on Mon. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft can be expected for the waters N of the monsoon trough, S of 20N and W of 120W. $$ CAM