000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130839 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 UTC Sat Oct 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0745 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N73W to 12N80W to 17N95W to 11N130W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 10N to 13N between 85W to 89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 09N to 14N between 84W and 94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 14N to 17N between 98W and 103W, from 06N to 10N between 104W and 117W, from 06N to 13N between 118W and 126W and from 06N to 13N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Sergio has already dissipated over northwestern Mexico. However, a residual area of 7 to 8 ft seas lingers near the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. This area of seas will subside around 1 ft by midday today as the swells disperse. Gulf of California: Strong winds and seas above 8 ft associated with Sergio have subsided. Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will support light to moderate winds over the southern Gulf through Sun night. Winds over the northern Gulf will be gentle to fresh. Strong to near gale force NW winds are expected N of 27N in response to very strong high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United States. Winds could gust to gale force for the waters N of 29N when this event peaks on Mon. Seas to 11 ft are possible in the northern Gulf Monday, then seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by Tue evening as winds die down. Farther south, gentle to moderate westerly flow and 5 to 8 ft seas are forecast through Tue night. Persistent moist southwesterly flow along the SW coast of Mexico could fuel convection well into next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft. Winds are expected to peak near gale force on Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Heavy rainfall during the past few days has already produced significant flooding in Nicaragua. Long period cross-equatorial southwest swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area during this time frame. Looking ahead, global models are indicating development of broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean. This area of low pressure will move west over Central America next week, enhancing convection across Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front will enter the NW waters early on Tue. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow will generally prevail until the middle of next week across the waters S of 10N with seas to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft can be expected for the waters N of the monsoon trough, S of 20N and W of 120W. $$ CAM