000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122202 RRA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Oct 12 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 15N93W to 15N100W, then resumes 
near 12N123W and continues to 11N134W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 17N east of 105W, and from 
06N to 13N between . Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 06N to 12N between 116W and 130W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N west of 
130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Tropical Storm Sergio degenerated into a remnant low over 
northwestern Mexico at 2100 UTC. However, large swell associated 
with Sergio across the offshore waters will gradually subside 
from 11 ft to 8 ft tonight and less than 8 ft early Sat.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds with seas to 12 ft 
associated with the remnants of Sergio will diminish to less 
than 20 kt and 8 ft tonight. Moderate west flow is expected by 
late tonight as Sergio continues further inland. Fresh to strong 
northwest winds and seas to 9 ft are forecast in the northern 
half of the gulf Monday continuing through Tue afternoon. 

Farther south, gentle to moderate westerly flow and 5 to 8 ft 
seas are forecast through Tue night. Persistent moist 
southwesterly flow along the SW coast of Mexico, with coastal 
convection, is likely to continue well into next week.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start 
early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow will continue 
across the region through the weekend, with widespread moderate 
to heavy showers expected to continue along the Pacific coast of 
Central America. Long period cross-equatorial southwest swell 
will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area.

Looking ahead, global models are indicating development of low 
pressure over the southwest Caribbean. The low will move west 
next week, enhancing convection across Panama and Costa Rica.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mixed swell seas generated from Sergio will subside through Sat 
as the pressure gradient relaxes across the waters north of 20N 
and west of 120W. A cold front will enter the NW waters early on 
Tue. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow will continue across the 
southern portion with seas to 9 ft. 

$$
Ramos