000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 12 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.
    
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Tropical Storm Sergio centered near 26.1N 113.8W at 0900 UTC or 
110 nm SW of Santa Rosalia Mexico moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm north of the center. Sergio will make landfall 
along the coast of central Baja California in about 6 hours near 
27N113W, continue across the Gulf of California today, then 
weaken and dissipate inland over NW Mexico tonight. Large swell 
associated with Sergio will spread east across the offshore 
waters with seas of 12 to 18 ft reaching the west coast of Baja 
today, with conditions improving tonight. Expect seas to subside 
to less than 8 ft early Sat. Refer to the NHC forecast/advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for additional 
details.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 14N90W to 15N113W to 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 75 nm either 
side of the axis between 95W and 101W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 123W and 
139W. An area of moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm 
of 09N85.5W near the coast of Costa Rica.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features paragraph above for information on 
Tropical Cyclone Sergio.

Gulf of California: Southerly winds will increase this morning, 
with tropical storm conditions and seas to 14 ft expected 
through the afternoon. Moderate west flow is expected by late 
tonight as Sergio continues further inland. Fresh northwest 
winds are forecast north of 30N late Sun night.

Farther south, gentle to moderate westerly flow and 5 to 8 ft 
seas are forecast through Sat. Persistent moist southwesterly 
flow along the SW coast of Mexico, with coastal convection, is 
likely to continue well into next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow will continue 
across the region through the weekend, with widespread moderate 
to heavy showers expected to continue along the Pacific coast of 
Central America. Long period cross-equatorial southwest swell 
will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the forecast area.

Looking ahead, global models are indicating development of low 
pressure over the southwest Caribbean. The low will move west 
next week, enhancing convection across Panama and Costa Rica.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mixed swell seas generated from Sergio will subside through Sat 
as the pressure gradient relaxes across the waters north of 20N 
and west of 120W. A cold front will approach the NW waters on 
Mon. Moderate to fresh monsoonal flow will continue across the 
southern portion with seas to 8 ft. 

$$
Mundell