000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070303 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0300 UTC Sun Oct 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Sergio centered near 14.5N 125.4W at 07/0300 UTC or 1010 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center of Sergio. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 121W and 129W. Large swells associated with Sergio will continue to mix with long period NW swell creating confused seas across a large portion of the discussion waters, with the swell also continuing to impact the SW coast of Mexico and Pacific coast of Baja California the next several days. In the far northern Gulf of California, a tightening pressure gradient enahancing gap wind flow across Baja California Norte is producing fresh to near gale SW to W winds. Winds will continue to increase to minimal gale force overnight before diminishing by Sun afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Enhanced SW monsoon flow driven by a broad area of low pressure, called a Central American Gyre, will continue to transport abundant moisture into portions of Central America. This will produce heavy rainfall across western Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, the coast of Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. These rains are expected to continue across portions of Central America for the next few days, resulting in flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Refer to your local meteorological service for specific information on this potentially dangerous weather pattern. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N99W to 13N100W to 16N117W, then resumes from 12N127W to 09N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15.5N between 86W and 100W, from 08N to 12N between 100W and 105W, and from 11N to 14N between 107W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 130W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Sergio and on a developing Gale Warning in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh NW to N winds and mixed swells from Sergio and long period NW swell will support combined seas of 7 to 11 ft to the W of 110W building through early next week, with light and gentle onshore winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft E of 110W. Conditions are forecast to rapidly deteriorate across the Baja California Sur waters as Sergio draws closer by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for additional details on the heavy rainfall potential over Central America. Fresh to strong SW monsoonal flow, and 8 to 11 ft seas, are expected over the offshore waters roughly from 08N to 13N and E of 95W the next couple of days, in response to the Central American Gyre discussed more in the Special Features section. The associated winds and seas will gradually diminish and subside the next few days, while the threat for heavy rainfall continues. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Sergio. Outside the influence of Sergio, moderate to fresh trades will prevail. The pressure gradient will tighten across the northern waters early next week with N to NE flow around a deepening high NW of the area supporting an increase to fresh to strong winds along and N of 30N. Meanwhile, confused seas are likely to continue due to long period NW swell, and a large and expanding area of mixed swell associated with Sergio. $$ AL