000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060855
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Sat Oct 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Sergio centered near 14.9N 123.5W at 06/0900 UTC or
910 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving SW at 7
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the 
center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 119W and 125W. Large 
swell generated from Sergio will impact the Pacific coast of 
Mexico and southern California this weekend. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/ WTPZ31 KNHC 
for more details.

In the Gulf of California, a tight pressure gradient will 
develop from around 29.5N to 30.5N late this afternoon and SW to
W winds will rapidly increase to fresh to near gale force 
enhanced from gap wind flow in Baja California Norte. Winds will 
continue to increase to minimal gale force tonight, diminishing 
by Sun afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 12N92W to 14N111W, 
it resumes from 11N126W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 86W 
and 98W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N
to 21N between 101W and 109W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 09N to 11N between 135W and 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane 
Sergio and a developing Gale Warning in the northern Gulf of 
California.

Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh NW to N winds and mixed 
swells from Sergio and long period NW swell will support combined
seas of 7 to 11 ft to the W of 110W building early next week, 
and 5 to 8 ft E of 110W. 

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong gap winds will 
prevail through early today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong SW monsoonal flow, and 8 to 11 ft seas, are 
expected roughly from 08N to 13N and E of 95W the next couple of 
days in response to a broad area of low pressure over Central 
America, called a Central American Gyre. As is typical for these 
features, the associated long fetch of SW winds across the 
tropical Pacific will transport abundant moisture into portions 
of Central America, especially from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This
will create the potential for significant rainfall over these 
areas through early next week. Refer to your local meteorological
service for specific information on this potentially dangerous 
weather pattern.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Sergio.

Outside the influence of Sergio, moderate to fresh trades will 
prevail. The pressure gradient will tighten across the northern 
waters early next week with N to NE flow around a deepening high 
NW of the area supporting an increase to fresh to strong winds 
along and N of 30N.

Meanwhile, confused seas are likely to continue due to long 
period NW swell, and a large and expanding area of mixed swell 
associated with Sergio.

$$
AL