000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050906
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 UTC Fri Oct 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Sergio centered near 16.0N 121.2W at 05/0900 UTC or
760 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Sergio will
slowly weaken as the system continues on a general westward 
track through the weekend. Numerous strong convection is noted 
within 90 nm of the center, while additional bands of scattered 
moderate to strong convection are occurring elsewhere from 10N to
19N between 117W and 126W. Large swell generated from Sergio 
will impact the Pacific coast of Mexico and southern California 
through this weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N87W to 12N99W to 12N102W to
15N112W. It resumes SW of Sergio from 11N126W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N
between 86W and 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 93W and 99W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N 
to 11N between 125W and 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Hurricane Sergio near 16.0N 121.2W 955 mb at 05/0900 UTC is 
moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt.
Sergio will continue to move away from Mexico the next few days 
while gradually weakening. Large southerly swell from Sergio will
impact the central coast of Mexico and Baja California waters 
through Sat. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will prevail through early Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong SW monsoonal flow, and 8-10 ft seas, are 
expected roughly from 08N to 12N and E of 95W the next few days 
in response to a broad area of low pressure over Central America,
called a Central American Gyre. As is typical for these 
features, the associated long fetch of SW winds across the 
tropical Pacific will transport abundant moisture into portions 
of Central America, especially from Costa Rica to Honduras. This 
will create the potential for significant rainfall over these 
areas through early next week. Refer to your local meteorological
service for specific information on this potentially dangerous
weather pattern.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features above for information on Hurricane Sergio.

Elsewhere, a trough across the northern waters from 30N124W to 
26N128W will gradually become diffuse during the next 24 hours. 
NW swell behind the trough will merge with the large and growing 
area of mixed swell associated with Hurricane Sergio today. 
Southerly swell from Sergio will mix with NW swell through the 
weekend to maintain seas in excess of 10 ft Sun and Mon.

$$
AL