000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050310
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0300 UTC Fri Oct 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Sergio centered near 15.9N 120.5W at 05/0300 UTC or 
730 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 7 
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Sergio will
slowly weaken as the system continues on a general westward 
track the next several days. Numerous strong convection is noted 
within 90 nm of the center, while additional bands of scattered 
moderate to strong convection are occurring elsewhere from 10N to
19N between 117W and 125W. Large swell generated from Sergio 
will impact the Pacific coasts of Mexico and southern California 
during the remainder of this week. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pres near 15.5N84W
to 11N102W to 14N113W. It resumes SW of Sergio from 11N126W to 
beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 08N to 12N between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 93W and 98W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N
to 11N between 130W and 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Hurricane Sergio near 15.9N 120.5W 951 mb at 05/0300 UTC is moving
NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt. Sergio 
will continue to move away from Mexico the next few days while 
gradually weakening. Large southerly swell from Sergio will 
impact the central coast of Mexico and Baja California waters 
through Sat. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will pulse to near 30 kt late tonight. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 12N,
with fresh to strong SW winds and building seas expected S of
the monsoon trough E of 100W through Sat in response to broad 
low pressure over the western Caribbean and Central America. 
This broad area of low pressure and the associated long fetch of
SW winds across the tropical Pacific will transport abundant 
moisture into portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and western 
Panama, and will produce significant rainfall through early next 
week. Isolated areas could see 20 inch rainfall accumulations by 
Mon. Refer to your local meteorological service for specific 
information on this potentially dangerous pattern.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features above for information on Hurricane Sergio.

Elsewhere, a trough across the northern waters from 30N124W to 
26N128W will gradually become diffuse during the next 24 hours. 
NW swell behind the trough will merge with the large and growing 
area of mixed swell associated with Hurricane Sergio on Fri. 
Southerly swell from Sergio will mix with NW swell through the 
weekend to maintain seas in excess of 10 ft Sun and Mon.

$$
AL