578 
AXPZ20 KNHC 030924
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Oct 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.
    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Sergio is centered near 12.3N 116.7W at 0900 UTC, well 
SW of Baja California, moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 965 mb. Some modest strengthening is expected during 
the next 24 hours or so. Numerous moderate to strong convection 
is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. 
Sergio will move NW tonight and Thu as it moves father out to 
sea. Large swell generated from Sergio will impact the Pacific 
coasts of Mexico and southern California this week. See latest 
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to low pressure near 
10N87W to 10N106W, then resumes west of Sergio from low pressure 
near 13N126W TO 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 07N to 13N between 83W and 99W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm south of the 
trough axis between 124W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features above for information on the impacts of the 
remnants of Rosa and on Hurricane Sergio.

The remnant low of tropical depression Rosa has moved inland 
over NW Mexico and dissipated. Seas associated with Rosa are 
fading quickly west of Baja California and in the northern Gulf 
of California.

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, offshore northerly gap winds of 20 
to 25 kt are expected to pulse during overnight hours through 
Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft during strongest winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 12N, with gentle 
to moderate winds expected on either side of the trough axis 
through tonight. Fresh to strong southwesterly flow and building 
seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected S of the monsoon trough E of 97W 
Thu through Sat as a broad low pressure area develops across the 
western Caribbean.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features above for information on Hurricane Sergio.

A weakening cold front is moving slowly across northern waters, 
and extends from 32N122W to 22N130W. The front will stall and 
become diffuse during the next 24 hours. A surface trough is 
expected west of the dying front on Wed from 30N126W to 25N130W. 
NW swell to 9-10 ft will affect the waters west of the trough 
tonight and Thu, then merge with the large and growing area of 
mixed swell associated with Hurricane Sergio by Fri. 

$$
Mundell