419 
AXPZ20 KNHC 232204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 23 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2045 UTC.
    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 01N110W to 10N123W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 
04N E of 87W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of 
the monsoon between 89W and 123W, and from 05N to 15N between 
124W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface trough is from 16N100W to 10N101W accompanied with 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection N of 08N between 
96W and 107W. This broad area of low pressure is forecast to 
spawn a center of low pressure near 13N107W on Mon. The low is 
expected to track west-northwest accompanied by tstms. Moderate 
to fresh cyclonic winds are forecast to reach the southern and 
westernmost Baja California Sur offshore waters by Thu afternoon 
through the weekend. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in mixed swell are 
expected in this region, particularly W of 112W. Environmental 
conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form in a few days well off the 
coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook indicates 
there is a high chance of development for this system within the 
next 5 days.
  
Moderate northwest flow is forecast west of the Baja California 
through Wed night, except becoming a fresh northwest breeze 
within 90 nm of the coast during the late afternoons and 
evenings.  

Gulf of California: Light to gentle variable winds are forecast 
across the gulf waters through Thu night, except for locally 
moderate southerly winds N of 29N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal flow 
forecast through late Mon, then resuming on Mon night through 
Thu night with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 15N95W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh east nocturnal 
drainage flow expected through Thu night with seas building to 
9 ft. 
  
Light and variable winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon 
trough which is meandering between 09N and 12N. Moderate 
southwest flow is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the 
middle of the week, increasing to moderate to fresh southwest 
monsoonal flow from 06N to 09N between 107W and 115W on Mon 
morning as a surface low develops near 13N107W.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

A trough extends from 18N134W to 07N135W with scattered moderate 
convection flaring within 180 nm west of the trough. Moderate to 
fresh winds are NW of the trough axis with seas to 9 ft in NE 
swell. With convection slightly decreasing the pressure in this 
region of the trough, fresh to strong winds are forecast to 
develop later tonight. However, winds and associated seas are 
forecast to decrease again by Mon morning. The trough will move 
west of the area by early Tue.

A broad ridge continues across the subtropics accompanied by 
moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow south of 23N west of 
120W.

$$
Ramos