049 AXPZ20 KNHC 230345 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 10N76W, and continues northwest across the extreme southwest Caribbean and continuing across Nicaragua to the coast at 13N88W, then turns southwest to 09N100W, then northwest to 10N113W, then southwest to 09N126W, then northwest to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm of the coasts of Central America and Mexico from 77W to 108W amd also within 120 nm of 06N87W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed elsewhere within the area bounded by 20N120W to 15.5N97.5W to 06N84W to 07N132W to 20N120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extending from 21N116W to 19N108W will continue to gradually retract northwest as a surface low slowly develops near 13N105W on Sun night. The low will track northwest accompanied by tstms just beyond 250 nm seaward. However, gentle to locally moderate cyclonic winds will shift northwest through the offshore waters mostly seaward of 200 nm with the low reaching a position near 17N115W on Fri. By then southerly swells in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas will spread east across the far offshore waters near 19N112W. Moderate northwest flow is forecast west of the Baja California through early Mon, except becoming a fresh northwest breeze within 90 nm of the coast during the late afternoons and evenings. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate variable winds forecast across the gulf waters north of 30N through Mon afternoon. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds expected across the gulf waters through the middle of next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal flow forecast through late Mon, then resuming on Mon night through Wed night with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 15.5N95W. Another late week drainage event may assist in the development of a surface low near 09N99W on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh east nocturnal drainage flow expected through Thu night with seas building to 8 ft. Light and variable winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 12N. Moderate southwest flow is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week increasing to moderate to fresh southwest monsoonal flow south of 10N late next week as a surface low begins to develop near 09N99W on Fri, and then tracks northwest of the area on Fri accompanied by tstms. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough extends southwest from 20N127W to 12N135W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection flaring within 60 nm of the trough. The trough will move west of the area by the early Tue. A broad ridge continues across the subtropics accompanied by moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow south of 23N west of 120W. $$ Nelson