983 
AXPZ20 KNHC 142004
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1926 UTC Fri Sep 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
09N75W to 11N96W to 11N110W to 15N127W to 13N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 15N W of 
131W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A trough is forecast to meander between the Gulf of California 
and the Baja California Peninsula through Sun. As a result, 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California 
through the upcoming weekend. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, 
except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf due to long period
southerly swell. Littel change is expected in this weather
pattern through Wed, when winds are forecast to increase to 20-25
kt across the central and northern Gulf.

A gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore 
waters W of Baja California, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft
range. Expect moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft 
N of Punta Eugenia through Sun as the pressure gradient tightens
with a ridge building in from the NW. Additional pulses of long 
period southerly swell will continue to impact the entrance of 
the Gulf of California, and the waters W of Baja California 
through the upcoming weekend. Seas will gradually subside to 4 
to 6 ft late Mon into Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the 
next several days. Winds will be gentle to moderate N of the
trough and moderate to fresh S of the trough as a large area of 
disturbed weather begins to slightly deepen during this weekend.

Additional pulses of cross-equatorial southerly swell will
continue to impact the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 to 9 
ft are already affecting the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, and have also reached to near the Azuero 
Peninsula. These marine conditions will persist on Sat, and start
to decay late on Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

The remnant low of Paul with a central pressure of 1012 mb is 
near 20.5N133W. Winds have diminished to 20 kt in the NW quadrant
of the low center where seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range based on
the most recent altimeter data. The remnant low of Paul is 
forecast to transition into a trough early on Sat. The trough is
forecast to drift westwardover the next 48 hours. An area of
fresh to strong winds is expected to persist near the northern
end of the trough axis with seas of 8 ft.

Looking ahead, a large area of disturbed weather is centered 
several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while the 
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward at around
10 kt south of Mexico. Currently, this system has a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Satellite 
imagery indicates a band-like of moderate to isolated strong 
convection within about 120 nm SW of a line from 08N100W to 
10N104W to 12N106W. Similar convection is also noted from 13N to
15N between 97W and 100W. 

$$
GR