472 
AXPZ20 KNHC 141533
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1458 UTC Fri Sep 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
09N75W to 11N96W to 11N110W to 15N130W to 13N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 16N W of 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A trough is forecast to meander between the Gulf of California 
and the Baja California Peninsula through Sun. As a result, 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California 
through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 
Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the 
entrance of the Gulf due to long period southerly swell.

A gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore 
waters W of Baja California, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft
range. Expect moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft 
N of Punta Eugenia Fri through Sun as the pressure gradient 
tightens with a ridge building in from the NW. Additional pulses
of long period southerly swell will continue to impact the 
entrance of the Gulf of California, and the waters W of Baja 
California through the upcoming weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the 
next several days. Winds will be gentle to moderate N of the
trough and moderate to fresh S of the trough as a large area of 
disturbed weather begins to slightly deepen during the upcoming
weekend.

Additional pulses of cross-equatorial southerly swell will
continue to impact the coasts of Mexico and Central America. 
Seas of 8 to 9 ft are already affecting the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and have also reached to near
the Azuero Peninsula. These marine conditions will persist on 
Sat, and start to decay late on Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

The remnant low of Paul with a central pressure of 1012 mb is 
near 21N133W. Latest scatterometer data continue to show fresh to
strong winds within about 150 nm NW quadrant of the low along 
with 8 to 10 ft seas based on altimeter data. The remnant low of
Paul is forecast to transition into a trough early on Sat.

Looking ahead, a large area of disturbed weather has formed 
several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while the 
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward at about 10
kt south of Mexico. Currently, this system has a medium chance 
of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Satellite imagery
indicates a band-like of moderate to isolated strong convection 
within about 90 nm W of a line from 09N100W to 10N104W to 
12N105W to 15N104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
elsewhere from 10N to 14N between 94W and 102W.

$$
GR