314 AXPZ20 KNHC 140921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 08N74W to 10N86W to 11N96W to 07N112W to 15N133W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N east of 106W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 11N to 14N between 131W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough is forecast to meander south-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula through Sun night. Generally low pressure across Mexico and a weak pressure gradient in the region will support gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of California through mid next week. Seas are forecast to be 3 ft or less, except 4 to 6 ft near the entrance of the Gulf due to long period southerly swell. Gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California through Wed, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. The pressure gradient will slightly tighten Sat night into Sun morning, which will result in moderate to fresh NW winds with seas to 8 ft in the Baja California Norte offshore waters. Long period southerly swell will continue to impact the entrance of the Gulf of California, and the waters W of Baja California through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on the northern side of the trough will be gentle to moderate while winds S of the axis are forecast to be mainly fresh between 104W and 127W. However, a slight increase in the pressure gradient on Sunday along with the deepening of a broad low pressure will support SW fresh to strong winds from 06N to 09N between 104W and 108W with seas to 10 ft. Pulses of cross-equatorial southerly swell continue to reach the coasts of Mexico and Central America. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are already affecting the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas will further build to 10 ft reaching the Azuero Peninsula Sat. This swell event will start to decay late on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Paul with a central pressure of 1011 mb is near 21N133W. Latest scatterometer data continue to show fresh to strong winds within 150 nm NW quadrant of the low along with 8 to 9 ft seas. The remnant low of Paul will move southwestward with the associated winds and seas gradually diminishing through today. Paul is forecast to transition into a trough by Sat night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph south of Mexico. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. $$ Ramos