577 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130834
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0915 UTC Thu Sep 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 118W from 02N to 13N moving westward 
at around 10 kt. Only widely scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms remain with the tropical wave. This tropical wave 
is likely to become diffuse and difficult to track in the next 12
to 24 hours or so.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
09N75W to 09N80W to 12N96W to 09N116W, then resumes from near
16N128W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is within 180 nm N of a line from 10N128W to 10N131W 
to 12N134W to 07N140W.

Also, scattered moderate to strong convection is within 210 nm
SW of the coast of Central America between 83W and 89W, and also
within 210 nm S of the coast of Mexico between 93W and 100W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 02N and
E of 80W to the Pacific coast of Colombia, including the approach
of the Gulf of Panama. All of this convection is supported with
upper level diffluence and additional initiation due to
instability over nearby landmass.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A trough is forecast to meander between the Gulf of California 
and the Baja California Peninsula through Sun. As a result, 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California 
through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 
Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the 
entrance of the Gulf due to long period southerly swell.

A gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore 
waters W of Baja California, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft
range. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh N of Punta 
Eugenia Fri through Sun as the pressure gradient tightens with 
ridging building in from the NW. Additional pulses of long period
southerly swell will continue to impact the entrance of the Gulf
of California, and the waters W of Baja California through the 
upcoming weekend.

A broad area of low pressure of 1009 mb about 150 nm W-SW of 
Cabo Corrientes has limited deep convection left.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the 
next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will 
be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the
axis by the end of the week into the weekend as broad low 
pressure along the axis deepens slightly.

Additional pulses of cross-equatorial southerly swell are
reaching the coasts of Mexico and Central America. Seas of 7 to 
10 ft are already affecting the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, and have also now reached to near the Azuero 
Peninsula. These swells will start to decay this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

The remnant low of Paul is near 22N131W at 1009 mb with no deep 
convection present. A ridge extends into the area to the NE of 
Paul from 32N128W to 17N122W. A tight pressure gradient is NW of
Paul where another ridge axis is present with fresh to strong 
winds still on the NW side of the Paul along with 8 to 10 ft 
seas. The remnant low of Paul will move westward with the 
associated winds and seas gradually diminishing through 48 hours.
Paul should open up into a trough by early Sat.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to develop 
well S of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the weekend. 
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some 
development while the system moves generally westward to west-
northwestward S of Mexico.

$$
Lewitsky