014 AXPZ20 KNHC 130311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0311 UTC Thu Sep 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 117W from 02N to 13N moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Only widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain with the tropical wave. This tropical wave is likely to become diffuse and difficult to track in the next 24 hours or so. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N80W to 12N95W to 09N115W, then resumes from 16N128W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm S of the axis to the E of 88W, from 08N to 12N between 92W and 96W, from 04N to 07N between 91W and 99W, and within 300 nm SE of the axis between 129N and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough is forecast to meander between the Gulf of California and the Baja California Peninsula through at least Sat. As a result, gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf due to long period southerly swell. A gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. Winds will slightly increase N of Punta Eugenia Fri through Sun. Marine guidance suggests winds in the 15 to 20 kt range. Additional pulses of long period southerly swell will continue to impact the entrance of the Gulf of California, and the waters W of Baja California through the upcoming weekend. A broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb about 100 nm W of Cabo Corrientes has limited deep convection left. The area still has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week into the weekend as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Additional pulses of cross-equatorial southerly swell are reaching the coasts of Mexico and Central America. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are already affecting the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and will build to such near the Azuero Peninsula through this evening. Seas are expected to further build to 9 or 10 ft across the offshore forecast waters of Panama and Costa Rica toward the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Paul is near 23N130W 1008 mb with no deep convection present. A ridge extends into the area to the NE of Paul from 32N128W to 17N117W. A tight pressure gradient is NW of Paul where another ridge axis is present with fresh to strong winds still on the NW side of the Paul along with 8 to 10 ft seas. The remnant low of Paul will move westward with the associated winds and seas gradually diminishing through 48 hours. Paul should open up into a trough by Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to develop well S of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development while the system moves generally westward to west- northwestward S of Mexico. $$ Lewitsky