678 AXPZ20 KNHC 120326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0326 UTC Wed Sep 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Paul centered near 22.4N 126.5W at 12/0300 UTC or 920 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Paul is a sheared tropical cyclone with the low level center exposed and with virtually no deep convection left. Paul is forecast to become a remnant low late tonight. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave that was along 98W/99W has become diffuse and difficult to track. A tropical wave axis extends from near 02N110W to 14N104W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 112W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N74W to 12N100W to 19N120W to 14N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within an area bounded by 11N88W to 09N79W to 05N77W to 02N90W to 08N101W to 10N96W to 07N90W to 11N88W. Similar convection is from 09N to 12N between 130W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance. A surface trough extends from offshore of Cabo Corrientes from near 15N107W to 22N105W. Associated scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 16N to 23N between 105W and 110W. A gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. Winds and seas will slightly increase N of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sat night. Marine guidance suggests winds in the 15 to 20 kt range, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Additional pulses of long period southerly swell are forecast to reach the entrance of the Gulf of California, and the waters W of Baja California tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week into the weekend as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Another pulse of cross-equatorial southerly swell is propagating northward. This swell event is currently reaching the coasts of Mexico and Central America. Seas will build to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by tonight, and near the Azuero Peninsula by late Wed. Seas are expected to further build to 9 or 10 ft across the offshore forecast waters of Panama and Costa Rica toward the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Paul. A ridge dominates the NW portion of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between tropical cyclone Paul and the ridge is producing an area of moderate to locally fresh NE mainly N of 22N W of 125W based on recent scatterometer and altimeter data. The pressure gradient is forecast to slacken as Paul spins down with mainly gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas by the start of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky