590 AXPZ20 KNHC 112120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2000 UTC Tue Sep 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Paul is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Paul is centered near 22.3N 125.2W at 11/2100 UTC moving WNW or 285 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Paul is a sheared tropical cyclone with the low level center exposed to the E of an area of deep convection. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is between 60 nm and 210 nm in the W quadrant of Paul, which is forecast to become a remnant low on Wed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W N of 04N moving westward at around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 108W from 04N to 18N moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near the northern end of the wave axis from 16N to 21N between 104W and 109W. This convective activity is affecting the waters near Cabo Corrientes, and the coasts of the States of Jalisco and Colima. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this shower and thunderstorm activity. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Colombian low located near 09N74W to 07N80W to 06N84W to 10N90W to 12N100W to 08N112W, then resumes from 15N126W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 80W and 87W, from 08N to 11N between 92W and 96W. Isolated to scattered moderate is noted from 10N to 14N between 110W and 131W, and within 90 nm N of the axis W of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Depression Paul which continues to move away from the offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance. A gentle to moderate NW flow will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. Winds and seas will slightly increase N of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sat night. Marine guidance suggests winds in the 15 to 20 kt range, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Additional pulses of long period southerly swell are forecast to reach the entrance of the Gulf of California, and the waters W of Baja California tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week into the weekend as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Another pulse of cross-equatorial southerly swell is propagating northward. This swell event is currently reaching the coasts of Mexico and Central America. Seas will build to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by tonight, and near the Azuero Peninsula by late Wed. Seas are expected to further build to 9 or 10 ft across the offshore forecast waters of Panama and Costa Rica toward the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Paul. A ridge dominates the NW portion of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between tropical cyclone Paul and the ridge is producing an area of moderate to locally fresh NE mainly N of 22N W of 125W based on recent altimeter data. The pressure gradient is forecast to slacken as Paul spins down with mainly gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas by the start of the upcoming weekend. An ASCAT pass also indicates the presence of a surface trough extending from 15N115W to 11N123W. Scattered showers are near the trough axis. $$ GR