365 AXPZ20 KNHC 111538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1507 UTC Tue Sep 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Paul centered near 22.3N 124.1W at 11/1500 UTC moving WNW or 290 degrees at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Paul is a sheared tropical cyclone with the low level center exposed to the E of an area of deep convection. Numerous moderate to strong convection is between 60 nm and 210 nm in the W quadrant of Paul. Paul is forecast to become a remnant low on Wed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W N of 04N moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 12N to 14N between 95W and 100W. A tropical wave is along 107W from 04N to 17N moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted near the northern end of the wave axis from 16N to 21N between 103W and 108W. This convective activity is affecting the waters near Cabo Corrientes, and the coasts of the States of Jalisco and Colima. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Colombian low located near 09N74W to 07N80W to 11N90W to 12N97W to 12N105W to 10N110W, then resumes from 15N126W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia, from 05N to 09N between 82W and 86W, from 07N to 11.5N between 91W and 95W. Scattered moderate from 10N to 14N between 117W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Depression Paul which continues to move away from the offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf during the next several days due to long period southerly swell. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Wed night. The pressure gradient will tighten thereafter allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Winds will further increase to moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California Norte by Fri night. Meanwhile, long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week, gradually subsiding by the end of the week into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week into the weekend as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Another pulse of cross-equatorial southerly swell is propagating northward. This swell event is forecast to reach the coasts of Mexico and Central America by later today. Seas will build to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by tonight, and near the Azuero Peninsula by late Wed. Seas are expected to further build to 9 or 10 ft across the offshore forecast waters of Panama and Costa Rica toward the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Paul. A ridge extends into the area between Tropical Storm Olivia W of the area and Tropical Depression Paul with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft mainly N of 22N W of 120W. The pressure gradient is forecast to slacken as Paul spins down with mainly gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas by the start of the upcoming weekend. $$ GR