053 AXPZ20 KNHC 110847 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0847 UTC Tue Sep 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Paul centered near 21.9N 123.1W at 11/0900 UTC or 730 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Paul is a sheared tropical cyclone with the low level center exposed to the E of an area of deep convection. Numerous moderate to strong convection is between 60 nm and 210 nm in the W quadrant of Paul. Paul is forecast to become post-tropical/ remnant low by 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 05N to 16N along 96W with the northern portion near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The tropical wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A tropical wave is from 03N to 19N along 106W with the northern portion near Cabo Corrientes. The tropical wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 14N to 19N between 102W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 12N96W to 12N107W, then resumes from 14N125W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N to 12N between 88W and 92W, from 10N to 13N between 93W and 97W, from 12N to 14N between 110W and 113W, and also from 10N to 14N between 119W and 123W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Depression Paul which continues to move away from the offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf during the next several days due to long period southerly swell. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Wed night. The pressure gradient will tighten thereafter allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Winds will further increase to moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California Norte by Fri night. Meanwhile, long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week, gradually subsiding by the end of the week into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week into the weekend as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Another pulse of cross-equatorial southerly swell is propagating northward. This swell event is forecast to reach the coasts of Mexico and Central America by later today. Seas will build to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by tonight, and near the Azuero Peninsula by late Wed. Seas are expected to further build to 9 or 10 ft across the offshore forecast waters of Panama and Costa Rica toward the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Paul. A ridge extends into the area between Tropical Storm Olivia W of the area and Tropical Depression Paul with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft mainly N of 22N W of 120W. The pressure gradient is forecast to slacken as Paul spins down with mainly gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas by the start of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky