029 AXPZ20 KNHC 110301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0301 UTC Tue Sep 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Paul centered near 21.6N 122.0W at 11/0300 UTC or 680 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Paul is a sheared tropical cyclone with the low level center exposed to the E of an area of deep convection. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is between 45 nm and 150 nm in the W quadrant of Paul, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 150 nm in the SW and 240 nm in the W quadrants. Paul is forecast to become post-tropical/remnant low by 48 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 05N to 16N along 95W with the northern portion near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The tropical wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A tropical wave is from 03N to 19N along 105W with the northern portion near Cabo Corrientes. The tropical wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 11N95W to 10N110W, then resumes from 15N116W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of shore between 77W and 87W, from 08N to 11N between 99W and 102W, from 07N to 11N between 104W and 108W, and also within 60 nm either side of the axis between 116W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Depression Paul which continues to move away from the offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf during the next several days due to long period southerly swell. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Wed night. The pressure gradient will tighten thereafter allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Winds will further increase to moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California Norte by Fri night. Meanwhile, long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week, gradually subsiding by the end of the week into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Another pulse of cross-equatorial southerly swell is propagating northward. This swell event is forecast to reach the coasts of Mexico and Central America by late Tue. Seas will build to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by late Tue, and near the Azuero Peninsula by late Wed. Seas are expected to further build to 9 or 10 ft across the offshore forecast waters of Panama and Costa Rica toward the end of the work week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Paul. A ridge extends into the area between Tropical Storm Olivia W of the area and Tropical Depression Paul with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft mainly N of 23N W of 121W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Tropical Depression Paul will increase slightly by Tue, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds across the NW waters, and seas to 8 or 9 ft. $$ Lewitsky