043 AXPZ20 KNHC 102007 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1935 UTC Mon Sep 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paul centered near 20.8N 120.7W at 10/1500 UTC or 580 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Paul is a sheared tropical cyclone with the low level center totally exposed. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm in the SW semicircle of Paul. Paul is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression late Tue, becoming a post-tropical remnant low Thu morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending N of 05N along 94W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 08N to 10N between 92W and 97W. A tropical wave is N of 05N along 105W moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 104W and 106W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the northern end of the wave axis from 16.5N to 18.5N between 102W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 10N85W to 11N95W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 09N104W to 08N11W, then resumes from 13N120W to 09N130W to 09N138W. Outside the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 84W and 86W, from 09N to 14N between 108W and 112, and from 12N to 15N between 115W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Paul, which is forecast to remain W of the offshore waters. Associated swells from Paul will continue to spread northward into the waters SW of the southern Baja California peninsula including near the Revillagigedo Islands through this afternoon. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the remainder of the week. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf during the next several days due to long period southerly swell. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Wed night. The pressure gradient will tighten thereafter allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week, gradually subsiding by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next several days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the axis by the end of the week as broad low pressure along the axis deepens slightly. Another pulse of cross-equatorial southerly swell is propagating northward mainly across the southern waters E of 130W. This swell event is forecast to reach the coasts of Mexico and Central America by late Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Paul. Swells associate with Hurricane Olivia well W of the area have subsided E of 140W. A ridge extends into the area between Olivia and Paul with mainly moderate winds. The main exception is in the N central waters N of 27N between 120W and 130W, where northerly winds have increased to fresh. Seas within this area are around 8 ft in northerly swell. The pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical cyclone Paul will slightly increase by Tue, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds across the NW waters. $$ GR