868 AXPZ20 KNHC 091548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1549 UTC Sun Sep 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Olivia centered W of the area near 21.8N 143.9W at 09/1500 UTC or 640 nm ENE of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Associated tropical storm force winds and convection are completely W of 140W. Associated outer winds and seas will shift completely W of 140W by tonight. See latest CPHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPCP5/WTPA35 PHFO for more details. Tropical Storm Paul centered near 17.9N 118.1W at 09/1500 UTC or 550 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection are within 240 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 117W and 125W. Gradual strengthening is forecast through Sun morning, then the intensity should hold steady through Wed before a weakening trend begins. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N86W to 21N86W, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection with this wave over the E Pacific is mainly associated with the monsoon trough. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N102W to 18N101W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 08N to 16N between 97W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 09N76W to 10N90W to 08N103W, then resumes from 14N120W to 10N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 09N E of 80W, from 06N to 11N between 82W and 97W, and from 11N to 18N between 135W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Paul which is forecast to remain just W of the offshore waters. Associated swells from Paul will continue to spread northward into the waters SW of the southern Baja California peninsula including near the Revillagigedo Islands through at least Mon. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 20N to 24N between 105W and 115W, including the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds over the northern Gulf this morning will diminish this afternoon through the remainder of the week. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft in the northern Gulf just this morning, as well as near the entrance of the Gulf the next several days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will allow for mainly gentle onshore winds through Mon night. The pressure gradient will tighten Tue through Thu night allowing for winds to increase to moderate W of 110W. Long period southerly swell is forecast to propagate into the offshore waters by the middle of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate. Long period cross equatorial SW swell propagating between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands is beginning to subside. This swell will continue to slowly subside through tonight, before another pulse arrives Mon night through the remainder of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Olivia W of the area which continues to shift away from 140W, and on Tropical Storm Paul. A ridge drops S into the area between Olivia and Paul with mainly moderate winds. The main exception is in the N central waters N of 27N between 122W and 129W, where northerly winds have increased to fresh, ushering in northerly swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft. This swell and winds will linger through the early part of the week, gradually diminishing and subsiding through the remainder of the week. $$ Latto