429 
AXPZ20 KNHC 060305
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Olivia centered near 17.7N 124.6W at 0300 UTC, moving 
WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. 
Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 
within 150 nm of the center. Olivia is forecast to continue on a 
west-northwest track, while gradually weakening. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W N of 05N. Convection is 
described below in monsoon trough section. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W N of 05N. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 98W and 
102W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1008 mb low pressure 
near 13N106W to 10N113W, then resumes from 13N128W to 12N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 
84W and 97W, and from 10N to 14N between 123W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface trough will meander between the the Gulf of California 
and the Baja California Peninsula the next few days. A ridge is 
forecast to build across the region later today as Olivia moves 
further away from the offshore forecast waters. Swell generated 
by Olivia will continue to propagate across the offshore waters 
tonight. SW swell will build seas to 7 to 8 ft over the offshore 
waters of southern Mexico by Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will linger near 10N during the next few 
days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to 
moderate, and 4-6 ft seas are expected tonight. Long period SW 
swell will propagate into the region, building seas to 8-9 ft by 
Fri, first between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, and then into 
the pacific waters of Costa Rica and Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
Hurricane Olivia. 

A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 20N W of 120W, with 
gentle to moderate winds. Seas generated by Olivia will continue 
to spread across the waters north of 10N and west of 115W over 
the next couple of days. 
  
$$
Mundell