312 
AXPZ20 KNHC 051515
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1401 UTC Wed Sep 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Olivia centered near 17.1N 122.3W at 1500 UTC, moving 
W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. 
Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the center. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 
within 150 nm of the center. Olivia is forecast to move on a 
west- northwestward track later today, while gradually weakening.
Olivia is forecast to weaken to tropical storm intensity near
22.0N 142.5W on Sunday. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W N of 05N. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N 
between 93W and 103W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N96W to low pres 
near 11N105W to 10N112W, then resumes near 13N127W to 13N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N
E of 82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N
between 125W and 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface trough will meander between the the Gulf of California 
and the Baja California Peninsula the next few days. A ridge is 
forecast to build across the region later today as Olivia moves 
further away from the offshore forecast waters. Swell generated 
by Olivia will continue to propagate across the offshore waters 
through tonight. SW swell will build seas to 7 to 8 ft over the 
offshore waters of southern Mexico by Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will linger near 09N/10N during the next few 
days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to 
moderate, and 4-6 ft seas expected today. Long period SW swell 
will propagate into the region, building seas to 8-9 ft by Fri, 
first between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, and then into the 
pacific waters of Costa Rica and Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
Hurricane Olivia. 

Hurricane Norman is well west of the forecast area. Associated 
winds and seas will continue to diminish over forecast waters 
today. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 20N 
W of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds. Seas generated by 
Olivia will continue to spread across the waters north of 10N and
west of 115W over the next couple of days. 
  
$$
AL