022 AXPZ20 KNHC 312216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2046 UTC Fri Aug 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Norman centered near 16.5N 121.5W at 2100 UTC, moving WSW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen in the SW quadrant within 210 nm and in the NE quadrant within 60 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 119W and 126W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. A developing tropical low centered near 14N106W drifting slowly WNW has an estimated pressure of 1008 mb. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found mainly on the SW side of the system from 12N to 15N between 106.5W and 110W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 104W and 114W. This system has a high chance to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For more information, please see the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis from 05N98W to 18N98W is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 14N between 92W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure 1009 mb near 10N75W to 09N87W to low pressure 1008 mb near 14N106W to 17N114W, then resumes SW of Hurricane Norman near 15N124W to 13N138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 09N E of 92W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Developing low pressure is currently centered S of Manzanillo Mexico. Additional development is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Saturday while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Winds and seas are likely to increase during the next fews days for the waters S if Cabo San Lucas. The highest winds and seas are forecasted to be near the Revillagigedo Islands on Sun and Mon. Otherwise, a ridge extends into the discussion waters from 32N130W to near 23N113W. The pressure gradient between the high and a trough near the Baja Peninsula will support moderate NW winds along the coast of Baja California tonight, with 4-6 ft seas. Winds will become gentle Sat through Mon as the gradient weakens. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail in offshore waters of Mexico the next few days with 3-6 ft seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger near 10N the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, and seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected through Sunday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Norman and a developing tropical low centered near 14N106W. Hurricane Miriam is centered west of the area near 19.2N 141.1W. The associated area of high winds and seas has shifted west of 140W. The outer circulation of Miriam supports 20 to 30 kt winds and 10 to 14 ft seas from 18N to 21N west of 139W. Winds 20 kt or less and seas of 8 to 11 ft are found elsewhere from 17N to 21N W of 138W. This area of winds and seas will shift northward between 139W and 140W through Sat, then NW out of the discussion area. See latest CPHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers TCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO for more details. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between ridging across the waters N of 20N and lower pressure along 10N will support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell west of 120W through the remainder of the week. South of the monsoon trough, expect gentle to moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas. Northerly swell to 8 ft may propagate south of 30W between 119W and 124W on Sun, then diminish by Sun night. $$ CAM