190 AXPZ20 KNHC 310344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Norman centered near 17.3N 119.6W at 0300 UTC, moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm N and 240 nm S semicircles. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. A poorly organized tropical low centered near 12.5N 106W is drifting slowly WNW, and has an estimated pressure of 1010 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is displaced away from the circulation from 09N to 15N between 102W and 109W. This system has a medium chance to develop into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours as it moves westward. For more information, please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis north of 05N along 96W is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm of the wave axis south of 08N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to low pressure near 12.5N106W to 12N112W, then resumes southwest of Hurricane Norman near 14N127W to 13N135W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 86W and 94W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends into the discussion waters from northwest of the area to near 25N118W. The pressure gradient between the high and a trough across the Gulf of California will support moderate to fresh NW winds along the coast of Baja California today, with 4- 6 ft seas. Winds will diminish slightly tonight as the gradient weakens. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail in offshore waters of Mexico the next few days with 3-6 ft seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger along 10N the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be gentle to moderate, and seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected through Sunday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Norman and a tropical low near 12.5N106W. Hurricane Miriam is centered west of the area near 16.5N 141.6W, and its associated area of high winds and seas is west of 140W. The outer circulation of Miriam supports 20 to 30 kt winds and 8- 11 ft seas from 14N to 19N west of 139W. This area of winds and seas will shift northward between 138W and 140W through Sat. See latest CPHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers TCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO for more details. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between ridging across the waters N of 20N and lower pressure along 10N will support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell west of 120W through the remainder of the week. South of the monsoon trough, expect gentle to moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas. Northerly swell to 8 ft may propagate south of 30W between 119W and 124W on Sun, then diminish by Sun night. $$ Mundell