617 AXPZ20 KNHC 290404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Miriam centered near 14.1N 137.4W at 0300 UTC, moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Miriam is a sheared tropical cyclone with scattered to numerous strong convection within 180 nm SE of the center. Some further strengthening is possible during the next 24 to 48 hours. Miriam is forecast to move into the Central Pacific basin in 24 hours then turn northward. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Norman centered near 17.5N 113.9W at 0300 UTC or 400 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Norman is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane within the next 12 to 24 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis N of 02N along 84W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 78W and 85W. A tropical wave axis is N of 05N along 104W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 17N between 100W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to 09N90W to 09N100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 87W and 94W, from 10N to 14N between 90W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. A ridge extends southeast from 43N153W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high and a trough across the Baja California Peninsula will support moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds funneling along the coast of Baja California Norte through Fri, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. Winds will diminish on Sat as the pressure gradient weakens. Low pressure over northern Mexico will support light to gentle southerly flow over the Gulf of California the entire week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger along 09N/10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light to moderate. The main exception to this will be over the Gulf of Papagayo where nocturnal offshore gap winds will pulse to moderate to fresh. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Miriam. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between ridging across the waters N of 20N and the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell N of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through the week. $$ Mundell