883 AXPZ20 KNHC 260311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 UTC Sun Aug 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1009 mb is embedded within the monsoon trough is near 13N122W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm SW semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 120W and 126W. Environmental conditions are conducive for the further development of this low, and there is currently a high probability that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 89W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave axis is near 102W from 02N to 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Broad low pressure is developing in association with this tropical wave. This area of low pressure will be one to watch with interest for potential tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave axis is near 138W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the Monsoon Trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N97W to 10N110W to low pressure near 13N122W to 14N131W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 81W and 86W, from 06N to 10N between 90W and 95W, from 06N to 15N between 98W and 105W, and from 07N to 10N between 105W and 116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm N and 180 nm S of the monsoon trough between 128W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1037 mb centered near 44N145W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient between the high and a persistent trough across the Baja California Peninsula will support moderate NW winds funneling along the coast of Baja through the next several days, with seas generally 4 to 5 ft. The highest seas are expected off of Baja California Norte and may briefly increase to 6 ft. Low pressure will deepen over the SW United States, with a trough extending across the Gulf of California early next week. This will help to freshen winds offshore of Baja California Norte Mon night through Wed. Seas over this area will then gradually build to 6 to 8 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly flow will persist over the Gulf of California this weekend, occasionally pulsing to fresh across north portions. Winds are expected to diminish early next week across south portion of the Gulf leading to variable winds. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, winds will be enhanced with the passage of a tropical wave, with axis currently near 89W. Winds are expected to pulse to fresh to strong tonight and Sun night, then only becoming fresh Mon Night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger along 09N/10N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light to moderate. The main exception to this will be over the Gulf of Papagayo. Nocturnal offshore gap winds in the gulf will pulse to fresh to strong during the next several nights. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for possible tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between ridging across the northern waters and the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through the weekend. Wave heights will be relatively low for most of the forecast area this week. Long period swell is expected to arrive from the Southern Hemisphere this weekend. Associated seas near the Equator will build, and peak at 6-8 ft, late Sun through Mon. $$ AL