078 AXPZ20 KNHC 152143 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Lane is centered near 10.6N 124.5W at 2100 UTC, moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are about 13 ft near the center. An altimeter pass around 1900 UTC just east of the center had maximum seas of 10 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the center, and widely scattered moderate convection is occurring between 120-240 nm from the center. Lane is expected to continue to intensify, reaching hurricane strength on Thu, and major hurricane status around Sat. The small size - Lane is anticipated to retain gale force winds of less than 100 nm radius - will limit the extent of 12 ft seas during the next few days. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from the northwestern Caribbean, across Central America, and into the Pacific down to about 08N near 85W. The wave is well-defined in the 700 mb trough diagnostics, but has little discernible surface component. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring between 05N- 08N between 82W-88W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Panama-Colombia border to 11N115W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm south of the axis between 82W and 88W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occuring within 120 nm north of the axis between 95W and 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging extends from around 30N135W to near Islas Revillagigedo. Winds should remain at moderate breeze or weaker for the next several days. No significant gap wind events are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Long-period S to SW swell of 6 to 8 ft originating south of the equator are impacting the Mexico offshore zones from Cabo Corrientes southward. These may be producing very large and dangerous surf conditions along the coastlines and outer reefs with localized breaking waves building to 15 ft today through Thu morning. These swell will gradually be diminishing during the next two to three days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough should remain near 10N during the next few days. Easterly winds north of the trough will be moderate breeze or weaker, while southwesterly winds south of the trough will also be moderate breeze or weaker. Long-period SW swell of 6 to 9 ft originating south of the equator are impacting the Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador offshore zones. These may be producing very large and dangerous surf conditions along the coastlines and outer reefs with localized breaking waves building to 15 ft today through Thu morning. These swell will gradually be diminishing during the next two to three days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See discussion above for Tropical Storm Lane. A weak 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 17N137W. Scattered moderate convection is observed continues within 120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Fresh easterly winds are likely occurring across the northern periphery of the low center, with seas to 8 ft. Building high pressure north of the area will maintain this area of fresh easterly winds today, even as the low pressure opens into a trough over the next couple of days, and reaches 140W tonight. Long-period cross-equatorial S southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters S of 20N E of 120W tonight through Thu, and then subside to less than 8 ft on Thu night. $$ Landsea