541 AXPZ20 KNHC 130402 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 110W-111W with a weak 1010 mb surface low near the wave at 10N113W. This system is progressing W at 10- 15 kt. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 07N to 14.5N between 107W and 117W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for this system to become better organized and potentially become a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N126W TO 20N122W. A weak 1011 mb low pres previously near 13N124W is no longer evident. This system is progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 08.5N to 20N between 121W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N73.5W TO 10.5N83W TO 08.5102W TO low pres near 10.5N113W TO 13N122W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 04N to 11N between 77W and 102W, and from 07.5N to 13N between 130W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW wind flow is forecast W of the Baja California through mid week as a weak and narrow ridge extends SE into the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds are expected to become fresh within 90 nm of the Baja coast during the late afternoons and evenings due to daytime heating. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the gulf waters N of 19.5N through early Thu. Light southerly are expected S of 29.5N through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh flow expected S of 29.5N on Wed night. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere off the Mexican coast through the middle of the week. Long period SW swell will move into the regional waters Tue and raise seas to 7 to 8 ft Wed through Thu night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal northerly drainage flow is expected through Thu morning. Guidance is suggesting strong N winds on Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong E drainage flow expected tonight followed by fresh nocturnal easterly flow through Fri morning. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Long period S to SW swell will spread into the regional waters late Mon and raise offshore seas to 7 to 8 ft on either side of the Galapagos Islands, before a strong and larger pulse of SW moves into the regional waters Tue. This next pulse of cross equatorial swell will raise seas to 7-9 ft Wed through early Thu before slowly subsiding through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered at 22.5N133.5W and estimated at 1010 mb. Winds have diminished to 20 to 25 kt, with 7 to ft seas, within 90 nm over the NW quadrant. This low pres center has been moving slowly westward that past 24 hours, but is forecast to gradually accelerate to 10-15 kt over the next few days and slowly dissipate as it approaches 140W Tue evening. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is centered near 28.5N123.5W and estimated at 1012 mb. This low has been moving very slowly SE today. Fresh NE winds are forecast within 210 nm over the NW semicircle through tonight with the low forecast to weaken to an open trough on Mon night as it moves NE. Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters S of 20N E of 120W Tue night through Thu, and then subside to less than 8 ft on Thu night. $$ Stripling