695 AXPZ20 KNHC 121548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N110W to 17N107W with a weak 1011 mb surface low along the wave axis at 09N110W. This system is progressing W at 10 kt. Only isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the low center. Environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N123W to 19N122W with a 1012 mb low pres along the wave axis at 13N122W. This system is progressing W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed N of 07N within 150 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 09N79W and extends W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then continues W through a surface low at 09N106W, then dips SW to 08N111W, then turns NW to a second low pres at 11N117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 09N85W to 07N95W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm either side of a line from 08N112W to 14N132W to 14N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Only moderate nocturnal northerly drainage flow expected through Thu. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the gulf waters N of 19.5N through Wed. Light southerly are expected S of 29.5N through early Wed. Moderate to locally fresh flow expected throughout the entire gulf waters on Wed night. Gentle to moderate NW flow forecast W of the Baja California through mid week except becoming a fresh NW breeze within 90 nm of the coast during the late afternoons and evenings. Light and variable winds expected elsewhere off the Mexican coast through the middle of the week. Long period SW swell in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will reach along 12N on Tue night through Wed night before beginning to subside. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong E drainage flow expected tonight followed by fresh nocturnal easterly flow through the middle of the week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Long period SW swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will propagate N across the Galapagos Islands early next week reaching the far offshore waters during the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Tropical waves paragraph above. The post-tropical remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered at 22N131.5W and estimated at 1008 mb. Winds have diminished to 20 to 25 kt within 75 nm over the NW quadrant. These winds are forecast to diminish to 15 to 20 kt on Mon Will the lose filling near 22N135W. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is centered 29N123W and estimated at 1013 nm. Fresh NE winds are forecast within 240 nm over the NW semicircle through tonight with the low forecast to weaken to an open trough on Mon night. Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters S of 13N E of 120W through Wed and then subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. $$ Nelson