827 AXPZ20 KNHC 120358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A broad tropical wave is along 105W and producing a large area of scattered moderate to strong convection from 06.5N TO 15N between 98W AND 113W. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed near the wave near 09N108W. This system is progressing W at 10-15 kt. The associated convection has shown intermittent banding features during the past 12-18 hours. The system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. A tropical wave is analyzed along 117W-118W, tilted NNE to SSW. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed near the wave at 13N120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 20N between 115W and 122W. This system is progressing W at 12 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N73.5W TO 07.5N87W TO low pres near 09N108W TO low pres near 12N120W TO 11.5N122W. A trough extends from 14N133W to beyond 13.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 60 nm N and 180 nm S of the trough between 77W and 97W, and from 07N to 14.5N between 125W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is located near 28N124W, and appears as a large low level cloud swirl in satellite imagery this evening. The low will continue to move W away from the northern waters setting up light to gentle NW winds W of the Baja California Peninsula through tonight, as a weak narrow ridge builds SE across the far outer waters. NW winds will gradually increase to moderate to locally fresh Sun through Wed with peak winds occurring during the late afternoon through evening hours. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the gulf waters N of 19.5N through Tue. Light southerly are expected S of 29.5N through early Tue. Moderate to locally fresh flow expected throughout the entire gulf waters on Tue night through late Wed. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed from 26N to 29N. Light and variable winds expected elsewhere off the Mexican coast through the middle of next week. Long period SW swell in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will spread northward across the waters S of 20N on Wed into Thu. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate nocturnal northerly drainage flow expected through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh easterly flow is expected through the middle of next week with nocturnal winds reaching briefly to 20- 25 kt late each evening. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Long period SW swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will propagate N across the Galapagos Island area this weekend reaching as far north as 09N on Sun night. Afterwards, another round of southerly swell will move into the southern waters, with guidance suggesting 7 to 8 ft seas spreading into the offshore waters during the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The post-tropical remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered at 22N132W at 1006 mb. Strong 20 to 30 kt winds, and 8 to 14 ft seas, prevail N and NW of the center and are forecast to gradually diminish to a moderate breeze with seas less than 8 ft by Mon evening. As mentioned above, the remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is centered 28N124W and estimated at 1009 mb. Strong winds continue within 90 nm over the N quadrant with 8 to 9 ft seas. This low is forecast to move slowly NW through late Sun and then drift back towards the NE on Mon and lose identity. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters E of 120W through next Wed. $$ Stripling