828 AXPZ20 KNHC 112205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N105W to 17N105W with a 1011 mb surface low along the wave axis at 09N105W. This system is progressing W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06N to 14N within 480 nm E and within 390 nm W of the wave axis. This convection shows intermittent banding features, and the system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N118W to 19N116W with a 1011 mb low pres along the wave axis at 11N118W. This system is progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed N of 10N within 240 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 09N79W and extends W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then continues W through a surface low at 09N105W, then dips SW to 07N111W, then turns NW to a second low pres at 11N118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of a line from 07N79W to 07N93W to 09N98W, and within 120 nm of 12.5N127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate nocturnal northerly drainage flow expected through the middle of next week. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the gulf waters N of 19.5N through Tue. Light southerly are expected S of 29.5N through early Tue. Moderate to locally fresh flow expected throughout the entire gulf waters on Tue night through late Wed. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed from 26N to 29N. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John will continue to move W away from the northern waters setting up light to gentle anticyclonic flow W of the Baja California Peninsula through tonight, with the winds becoming NW on Sun and gradually increasing to moderate to locally fresh breeze on Sun night, with little change then forecast through Wed morning. Light and variable winds expected elsewhere off the Mexican coast through the middle of next week. Long period SW swell in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will reach across the waters S of 12N on Wed into Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Long period SW swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will propagate N across the Galapagos Island area this weekend reaching along 03N on Sun night. By then another round of southerly swell will move into the southern waters, with guidance suggesting 7 to 8 ft seas reaching between 10N and 12N during the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Tropical waves paragraph above. The post-tropical remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered at 22N131W 1008 mb. Strong to near gale winds, and 11 to 16 ft seas, near the center are forecast to gradually diminish to a moderate breeze with seas less than 8 ft by Mon. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is centered 28N124W and estimated at 1012 mb. Strong winds continue within 90 nm over the N quadrant surrounded by 7 to 9 ft seas. This low is forecast to reach near 29N125W on Sun and lose identity on Mon. Mixed swell in the the form of 7 to 9 ft seas is observed elsewhere N of 16N and W of 120W. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters E of 120W through next Wed. $$ Nelson