402 AXPZ20 KNHC 111558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N103W to 16N103W with a 1011 mb surface low along the wave axis at 09N106W. This system is progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06N to 14N within 330 nm either side of the wave axis. This convection shows intermittent banding features and the system has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days. A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N117W to 17N116W with a 1011 mb low pres along the wave axis at 11N117W. This system is progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed N of 10N within 240 nm either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 09N79W and extends W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then continues W through a surface low at 09N106W, then dips SW to 08N111W, then turns NW to a second low pres at 11N117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 09N85W to 07N95W. isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm either side of a line from 08N112W to 14N132W to 14N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Only moderate nocturnal northerly drainage flow expected for the next few days. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the gulf waters N of 19.5N through Tue. Light southerly are expected S of 29.5N through early Tue. Moderate to locally fresh flow expected throughout he entire gulf waters on Tue night through late Wed. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John will continue to move W away from the northern waters setting up light to gentle variable flow W of the Baja California Peninsula through tonight with winds becoming NW on Sun and gradually increasing to moderate to fresh breeze on Sun night, with little change then forecast through Wed morning. Light and variable winds expected elsewhere off the Mexican coast through the middle of next week. Long period SW swell in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will reach along 11N on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal easterly flow is expected through the middle of next week. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. Long period SW swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will propagate N across the Galapagos Islands this weekend reaching along 03N on Sun night. By then another round of southerly swell will move into the southern waters, with guidance suggesting 7 to 8 ft seas reaching along 10N during the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Tropical waves paragraph above. The post-tropical remnant low of former tropical cyclone Kristy is centered at 21.4N 131.0W 1003 mb at 1500 UTC Aug 11 moving W-NW at 4 KT. Winds have diminished to 30 kt gusting to 40 kt near the center surround by strong winds and 12 to 25 kt seas within 90 nm over the N semicircle, and within 60 nm SE and 30 nm SW quadrants. Mixed swell in the the form of 7 to 9 ft seas is forecast elsewhere within 240 nm either side of a line from 19N126W to 27N138W. This low is forecast to reach near 22.0N 132.2W on Sun, near 22.5N 134.5W on Mon and dissipate on Tue. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone John is centered 28N123W and estimated at 1008 nm. Strong winds continue within 90 nm over the N quadrant surrounded by 7 to 9 ft seas within 60 nm SE and 90 nm NW semicircles of the center. This low is forecast to reach near 29N125W on sun and near 29N125W on Mon with seas subsided to less than 8 ft. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The pressure gradient between the remnant low of John and high pressure to the NW will increase NE winds across much of the NW part of the forecast area through the weekend. Long-period cross-equatorial SW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters E of 120W through next wed. $$ Nelson