437 AXPZ20 KNHC 110407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 11 2018 Updated Tropical Waves section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 20.5N 130.1W at 0300 UTC, moving N or 355 degrees at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds have diminished slightly to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows the cyclone continuing to move northward and maintain its deep convection surrounding the core, where scattered strong convection is observed within 75 nm of the center across the N semicircle and SE quadrant, and within 60 nm across the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center across the SE semicircle. Kristy is forecast to gradually weaken tonight through this weekend as it veers northwestward and begins to move over colder sea surface temperatures. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. A gale warning for the Post-Tropical storm remnant low of John has ended at 0000 UTC. This remnant low is centered near 27.5N122W, moving NW or 310 degrees at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Winds have diminished to 25-30 kt within 150 nm of the center across the NE semicircle, with seas of 9-13 ft, and will gradually diminish further over the next 24- 36 hours as the low moves slowly WNW and weakens. Earlier S to SW swell generated from John will continue to affect portions of the coast of Baja California peninsula through Sat. Southerly swell has already peaked across the coastal waters of southern California today but will continue to produce moderate to large surf and strong rip current conditions there through Sat. Please consult products from your local NWS office. ...TROPICAL WAVES...Updated A tropical wave is along 97W-98W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 96W and 104W. A tropical wave is along 112W-113W from 04N to 17N, with a 1012 mb low pressure center near 11N114W, moving westward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection from 07N to 14N between 109W and 117W. More stable atmospheric conditions are expected ahead of the wave as it moves westward of 120W in the next few days, and the low center will likely dissipate within 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W TO 09N85W TO 08N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N114W 1012 MB TO 14N120W where it terminates. The ITCZ extends from 15N133W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 12N between 80W and 94W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 121W and 127W, and within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 133W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Post-Tropical Storm John, now a low center, is moving west- northwest away from the Baja California Peninsula. Swells propagating away from John are reaching the Baja California coastline and will continue through Sat. Weak high pressure is building over the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula, and will last through at least the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh northeast to east nocturnal winds will flow through the gulf beginning late tonight and into early on Sun. Gentle to occasionally moderate east winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with axis roughly along 09N/10N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the trough through the end of this week. Seas in the range of 4-6 ft will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. These seas will increase over the weekend to 7-9 ft due to a large area of long period cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details Tropical Storm Kristy, where generated swell will continue to affect the waters N of 17N west of 125W through early next week. Seas generated by former Tropical Storm John and Kristy have combined to create an area of 8-9 ft seas to the N of 15N and W of 119W. These seas will last through Sat afternoon, then shrink in coverage Sat night through Sun. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The pressure gradient between the remnant low of John and high pressure to the NW will increase NE winds across much of the NW part of the forecast area through the weekend. $$ Stripling