215 AXPZ20 KNHC 102350 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2350 UTC Fri Aug 10 2018 Updated Tropical Waves section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 19.6N 129.9W MB at 2100 UTC, moving N or 360 degrees at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to maintain its current intensity, with strong convection observed within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 45 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the SW semicircle and within 30 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Kristy is forecast to gradually weaken beginning tonight and through this weekend as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures. waters through the upcoming weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. Gale Warning: The now Post-Tropical storm remnant John low is centered near 27N121W at 1800 UTC, moving NW or 310 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Minimal gale force winds are most probable within 90 nm of the low center in the NE semicircle, with seas of 12-16 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to just below gale force early this evening as the low reaches near 28N123W. The low will will continue to track in a northwest motion through the weekend as it weakens. By early Sun afternoon, it is expected to be near 29N127W, with fresh N to NE winds to its northeast along with seas of 6-8 ft in decaying mixed swell within 60 nm of the low in its eastern semicircle. Earlier generated swells will continue to affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico through tonight and the Baja California peninsula through Sat. Southerly swell has reached the coastal waters of southern California overnight and will produce large surf and strong rip current conditions there through Sat. Please consult products from your local weather office ...TROPICAL WAVES...Updated A tropical wave axis is along 97W/98W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered strong convection is within 180 nm E and 120 nm W of the wave axis from 11N to 13N. A tropical wave axis is along 113W from 04N to 17N, with a 1011 mb low pressure along the axis at 11.5N113W. It is moving westward at 16 kt. This wave is exhibiting a broad envelop of low-level clouds shifting from NE to SE in direction across the axis. Model guidance keeps this signature in the low-level wind fields as well as in the 700 mb streamline guidance through the next few days. The satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 12N to 15N between 111W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm W of the wave axis from 07N to 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N75W to 10N100W to 11N113W where it ends. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N139W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered strong convection is noted within 120 to 180 nm north of the axis between 93W and 95W, and within 120 nm S of the axis between 109W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the axis E of 81W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on a short- term gale warning associated with the Post-Tropical storm John remnant low. Post-Tropical Storm John, now a low center, is moving west- northwest away from the Baja California Peninsula. Swells propagating away from John are reaching the Baja California coastline and will continue through Sat. Weak high pressure is building over the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula, and will last through at least the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh northeast to east nocturnal winds will flow through the gulf beginning late tonight and into early on Sun. Gentle to occasionally moderate east winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with axis roughly along 09N/10N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the trough through the end of this week. Seas in the range of 4-6 ft will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. These seas will increase over the weekend to 7-9 ft due to a large area of long period cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details regarding post-Tropical Storm John and on Tropical Storm Kristy, which will affect the waters N of 17N west of 125W through early next week. Seas generated by former Tropical Storm John and Kristy have combined to create an area of 8-9 ft seas to the N of 15N and W of 119W. These seas will last through Sat afternoon, then shrink in coverage Sat night through Sun. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The pressure gradient between John and high pressure to the NW will bring increasing winds across the NW part of the forecast area through the weekend. $$ Aguirre