261 AXPZ20 KNHC 100405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm John is centered near 25.5N 119.6W 997 MB AT 0300 UTC or about 555 nm WNW of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW or 300 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection within 75 nm north and 60 nm south of the center. Although the overall appearance of John has improved modestly tonight, the tropical storm will begin to weaken overnight and Friday as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures. John will reach near 27.2N 122.7W as a minimal tropical storm Friday evening then weaken to a post-tropical remnant low near 28.4N 124.8W by Sat evening as it moves farther away from the Baja peninsula. Swells from John will continue to affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico through Friday and the Baja California peninsula through Sat. Southerly swell was expected to begin reaching the coast of southern California this evening. These swells are likely to large surf and strong rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 17.4N 129.9W 992 MB AT 0300 UTC, moving N or 10 degrees at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone has continued to become better organized during the evening hours, with microwave imagery showing the development of an eye feature. Deep convection, in the form scattered moderate to strong intensity, is observed within 60 nm of the center, while scattered moderate to strong convection is seen elsewhere within 90 nm north and 180 nm south of the center. Kristy is expected to become a minimal hurricane overnight or Friday morning as it remains over water waters, and moves northward along 130W. Afterwards Kristy is expected to begin to gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters and become nearly stationary on Sunday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 92W-93W north of 05N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 06N to 11N between 88W and 98W. A tropical wave axis is along 109W-110W from 04N to 18N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm either side of wave from 06N to 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N75W TO 05N79W TO 09N88W TO 08N92.5W TO 11N106W TO 15N113.5W, where it terminates. ITCZ begins to the west of 140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 06.5N to 11.5N east of 88W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm John. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly flow northerly nocturnal drainage flow is expected downstream of the gulf overnight and Fri reaching to near 13N, with seas reaching a peak of about 7 ft. John is moving west-northwest away from the Baja California Peninsula. Swells propagating away from John are reaching the Baja California coastline and will continue through Fri. A weak ridge will build between John and Baja California Peninsula by Fri as the cyclone moves away from the offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh northeast to east nocturnal winds will flow through the gulf tonight into early on Sun. Gentle to occasionally moderate east winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with axis roughly along 09N/10N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the trough through the end of this week. Seas in the range of 4-6 ft will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. These seas will increase over the weekend to 7-9 ft due to a large batch of cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storms John and Kristy, which will affect the waters N of 13N W of 110W during the next several days. Large swell will propagate well away from John through Friday. The areas of 8 ft seas generated by swell from John and Kristy will merge later today, with a large area of 8 ft seas likely enveloping most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W through Fri. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The pressure gradient between John and high pressure to the NW will bring increasing winds across the NW part of the forecast area Fri and through the weekend. $$ Stripling