632 AXPZ20 KNHC 092204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm John is centered near 24.8N 118.5W at 2100 UTC or about 485 nm WNW of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW or 290 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb. Maximum sustained winds decreased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 30 nm of the center. John will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures near 26.4N 122.0W early Fri afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt gusts to 45 kt, then weaken to a remnant low by early Sat afternoon near 27.7N 124.5 as it moves farther away from the Baja peninsula. Swells from John will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California by this evening. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 16.9N 130.1W at 2100 UTC, moving N or 360 degrees at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone has continued to become better organized during the day. Deep convection, in the form scattered moderate to strong intensity, is observed within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant and within 30 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is seen elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Kristy will move northward along 130W during the next 18 hours while increasing slightly in strength before turning NNE afterwards as it begins to gradually weaken. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 93W north of 05N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 east and 120 nm west of the axis from 06N to 09N. A tropical wave axis is along 109W from 04N to 17N, moving westward near 17 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm either side of wave from 06N to 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N79W to 10N90W to 11.5N101W. ITCZ extends from 11N137W TO BEYOND 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 04N to 10N east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm southeast of the ITCZ west of 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm John. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly flow northerly nocturnal drainage flow is expected downstream of the gulf on Fri reaching to near 13N, with seas reaching a peak of about 7 ft. John is moving west-northwest away from the Baja California Peninsula. Swells propagating away from John are reaching the Baja California coastline and will continue through Fri. A weak ridge will build between John and Baja California Peninsula by Fri as the cyclone moves away from the offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh northeast to east nocturnal winds will flow through the gulf tonight into early on Fri. Gentle to occasionally moderate east winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with axis roughly along 09N/10N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the trough through the end of this week. Seas in the range of 4-6 ft will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands. These seas will increase over the weekend to 7-9 ft due to a large batch of cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storms John and Kristy, which will affect the waters N of 13N W of 110W during the next several days. Large swell will propagate well away from John through Friday. The areas of 8 ft seas generated by swell from John and Kristy will merge later today, with a large area of 8 ft seas likely enveloping most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W through Fri. A ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The pressure gradient between John and high pressure to the NW will bring increasing winds across the NW part of the forecast area Fri and through the weekend. $$ Aguirre